Senior Analyst - Financial Modelling & Forecasting

Play a pivotal role in the Ferry Replacement Programme (FRP), with future scope expanding across KiwiRail's broader forecasting landscape.

Apply advanced financial modelling and project management expertise to one of New Zealand's most significant infrastructure investments.

Lead and influence through strong cross-functional stakeholder engagementPermanent, Auckland-based opportunity.

He whakamārama mo te tūranga mahi |

About the role

The Senior Analyst – Financial Modelling & Forecasting (Ferry Replacement Programme) is a high-impact specialist role at the heart of one of KiwiRail's most strategically important investments. You will design, build, and continuously evolve KiwiRail's long-range financial forecasting model, spanning the preparation and transition phase (FY27–FY29) and the future ferry operation (FY30–FY59).

You will deliver fully integrated three-way financial statements (P&L, Balance Sheet, Cashflow) with robust scenario and sensitivity capability, ensuring decision-makers have the clarity and confidence needed to steer the programme.

Beyond the model itself, you will lead demand analysis and forecasting across the ferry 3 businesses segments of the ferry operation, ensuring sharp commercial insights flow seamlessly into the FRP financial model, operational planning, and governance decision-making.

This is a specialist leadership role for someone who combines deep analytical expertise with strong commercial judgement, and who can federate senior stakeholders and translate complex modelling outputs into clear, compelling recommendations for the ferry target business model.

Key accountabilities include:

Develop and maintain the long-range financial model for the FRP, ensuring full integrity and internal consistency across the three-way financial statements (P&L, Balance Sheet, Cashflow) and enabling robust scenario analysis with sensitivity capabilities.

Define and own the FRP model update roadmap, aligned to programme milestones and governance cadence.

Project manage inputs from FRP stream leaders into the model, ensuring timely, accurate, and well-coordinated updates against the agreed plan.

Communicate modelling outputs, insights, and recommendations clearly and persuasively to governance forums and senior stakeholders.

Lead demand analysis and forecasting across the three ferry business segments (Rail, Commercial Vehicles, Passengers), embedding operational planning assumptions into the financial forecast and contributing to validation of the new ferry business model.

Integrate data from multiple sources and systems, ensuring accuracy, auditability, and alignment with broader business planning processes.

Partner with the Strategic Performance and Financial Controller teams to align modelling with wider business activity, including the Statement of Corporate Intent, IBP planning, Network Economics, Cash Generating Unit valuations, and inputs into KiwiRail's consolidated financial model.

• Ngā pukenga e rapu nei mātou | What (skills) you will bring: Knowledge and experience
• These are day one things that people need to do their job
• You have demonstrated expertise in financial modelling, including integrated three-way financial statements over long-range horizons
• You have strong experience in demand analysis and forecasting, ideally within transport, logistics, or other asset-intensive industries
• You have a proven ability to lead by influence, engaging cross-functional senior leaders to shape and build a robust transition and 30-year ferry operator financial model
• You are highly proficient in Excel, with working familiarity of Power BI for data extraction and reporting
• You have hands-on experience working with multiple, imperfect data sources and building robust, auditable processes
• You have a strong commercial acumen, with a clear understanding of how demand, capacity, utilisation, pricing, and cost dynamics interact to drive business outcomes
• Ways of working / Work-related qualities
• These are how people work
• You communicate complex information clearly and adapt your style for different audiences.

You collaborate effectively across teams and functions, supporting a positive and inclusive culture.

You take ownership of your work, demonstrate sound judgement, and proactively seek opportunities for improvement.

You are resilient and adaptive in the face of change and ambiguity.

Qualifications

• You need either:
• You have a tertiary qualification in Finance, Economics, Engineering, or a quantitative discipline, or equivalent industry experience.Nōu te rourou |

What's in it for you

• 4% Kiwi
• Saver employer contribution25 annual leave days
• Access to discounted travel, health insurance & holiday houses across NZ as part of the Staff Welfare Trust
• A strong Zero Harm policy to keep you safe
• Kua rite, kia rite | Ready to Make a Difference?Rā aukati | Applications close: 26 July 2026To view a position description and to apply please go to careers.kiwirail.co.nz Only candidates with current NZ work rights will be considered